The Stalwart

A Myth That Won't Go Away Anytime Soon

The BSE-Human connection.

After 12 years, the U.K. Food Standards Agency (FTA) admits there is no connection between BSE and Humans.

This all began, when Conservative MP Stephen Dorrel, said in the House of Commons, London, on March 20 1996 that “there was the possibility of a link between BSE and CJD”. Of course, the media and other nation's governments soon followed in this line of thinking

Read more at Beefmagazine.com.

A Good Argument For Bottled Water: It's Better Than Soda

I've never been particularly impressed by arguments against bottled water -- especially the ones that compare the price of a gallon of water out of the tap and a bottle of watter (you're not paying for the water, you're paying for the convenience). Anyway, here's a very compelling argument for bottled water. To the extent that people are picking up a bottle of water instead of a bottle of coke or even (high sugar) juice, it's a major public health coup. Aguanomics:

...I think that the consumption of bottled water needs to be viewed in terms of long term dietary trends in the U. S.

Since roughly the 1930's... there has been a long term decline in per capita alcohol consumption. Hard liquor consumption just fell off the table and beer is in slow decline. Wine consumption in flat at best. There are just some really significant changes going on and they are really long term trends.

What did grow during that time period was consumption of soft drinks.

Just think of what might happen if the anti-bottled water crowd had to get into a debate with their intellectual fellow travelers -- the public health scolds. Oy! The mind boggles.

The Aslick Gene

The holy grail of cattle heat tolerance? Scientests have isolated the critical Aslick Gene:

With the summer heat blazing down on cattle ranchers across the country, the discovery of a new way to improve heat tolerance in cattle is certainly good news. A recent news report released by USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) says scientists have the technology to pinpoint the chromosomal location of the Aslick© gene to help breeders develop cattle with shorter, slick hair to help the cattle stay cool in the subtropical heat.

Aslick... Sounds like what some people call the neighborhood between Astoria and Long Island City in Queens. Though that's Aslic (no k).

Not Just Oil

AGMetalMiner: Global Economic Slowdown Hits Nickel, Zinc.

We Need More HVAC Bloggers

A smart post over at MetalMiner:

I really enjoy when our HVAC repair guy comes to pay a visit (not because I enjoy sweltering in 90 degree heat mind you when the AC isn’t working) but when you talk to someone in the trades who really knows their business and who happens to recognize some interesting trends. My first question, “have you seen any copper thefts in Chicago?” His answer did not surprise me, “more than I have ever seen since I have been in this business.” The copper line set is quite valuable and he’s seen more than a few stolen just this season. But then we got onto that exciting topic of plumbing. I asked him if he felt any of the alternative products out there would begin to eat into copper’s market share. And he said, “I have no doubt that PEX will make a huge dent in copper’s market share within the plumbing world.”

Pex is a polyethylene-based alternative to traditional piping, apparently.

Anyway, that's interesting, but it also speaks to something else. It's too bad more people aren't blogging their trade, so we could really start to harvest and glean more of this knowledge. Right now, there are plenty of people blogging the industries they work in and tech and media, and that's great. It's a great education. But we need more HVAC bloggers. And cattle bloggers. And aggregates bloggers. And fishboat captain bloggers. If you know of any good ones, pass 'em on.

Hedge Fund Has Water Rights for Three Glaciers

A Canadian hedge is hoping to make good returns off of water rights it bought for three glaciers in Northern Europe. Seems like these rights also last 95 years, so I'm curious what kind of price was paid. The hedge fund plans to fill tankers with water and to eventually sell to those in need. They are making a bet that we'll see an expansion of market-based pricing systems whereby demand for private owned (and market-priced) water grows.

Otto Spork has hired three glaciers. He is siphoning off the melting glacier water, and plans to put it in tankers and ship it to thirsty companies and countries across the globe.

Water is the new oil, says Mr Spork, chief executive of Canadian hedge fund Sextant Capital Management: "Two years ago we were looking for the next big commodity and settled on water. It was under appreciated, mispriced, and growing scarce." ...

Sextant bought 95-year water rights to three glaciers in northern Europe, all close to ports. One glacier will be used to create bottled water; the other two will provide bulk water transported to customers in 24,000 litre containers or supertankers. Mr Spork plans to float his glacier-owning companies in the next six months

Oh wait. So perhaps he's actually looking to make money off of the water fund concept, rather than the actual water assets. Maybe he's going for a quick flip. We should be at least somewhat skeptical at first blush. Nevertheless assuming he's genuine, water shortages are a pretty interesting long term trend and there's probably good money somewhere along the line.

Merrill Lynch estimates that by 2025 two-thirds of the world's population could be living in conditions of "water stress", which would have a big impact on farming (which uses 70 per cent of the world's fresh water), industry (22 per cent) and day-to-day living (8 per cent.)

Statistics like that have persuaded the "commodities king" Jim Rogers, who has a track record for timely and lucrative investments, of Mr Spork's point of view. ...

Legendary oil investor T.Boone Pickens agrees, and has spent $100m buying up water rights in Texas and building a 250-mile pipeline to the city of Dallas, where he hopes to sell it.

But water is not yet traded as a global commodity. It is owned, by and large, by governments, not by private companies. It is heavily subsidised in many countries, particularly for farmers, exacerbating waste and inefficiency. Prices vary hugely across the globe, and often the poorest people without access to municipal water pay huge premiums.

Water needs to become more expensive, says Mr Rogers, and the free market is the best tool for the job.

An interesting article worth a full read. Personally, I have thought that things like water purification and desalination technology would be the most interesting angle, avoiding the political complications of trying to hike the prices of privately owned water. If anyone knows a legitimate water technology pure play, feel free to tell us about it in the comments.

Questions To Debate When You're Drunk

When you gather with your friends to drink, are these the type of questions you frequently ask yourself?

Is Anil Agarwal to Non Ferrous Metals What Lakshmi Mittal is to Steel?

If so, ping me when you're in New York.

Building For Drink

Mark Kuhar summarizes a new report on the US construction outlook. Most of it doesn't sound too surprising. Economy is still kinda slow, and don't look for housing to come back anytime soon. One bright spot, evidently, is water :

The Construction Outlook also reports that water is an important concern in our nation. Aging infrastructure, population growth and net migration are fueling demand for new and replacement construction especially in the Sunbelt and Rustbelt regions. Water supply and sewage and waste disposal construction will increase by 2 percent and 3 percent in 2008 and by 2 percent and 4 percent in 2009 despite a decrease in state and federal revenues.

Bring Out The Pre-Cogs

It's safe to say that the war on speculation has now officially entered the realm of Minority Report:

Bloomberg: CFTC to Examine Oil Traders' Intent, Ex-Officials Say

An investigation of oil trading by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will likely target evidence that traders intended to manipulate markets rather than just schemed to make money, former officials of the agency said.

That being said, Minority Report was a great movie.

Signs Of Market Tops?

You should always be extremely wary anytime someone cites some incident (magazine cover, event, etc.) as evidence of a market top or bottom. But I suspect there is something to the notion that when a certain asset class is peaking, financial firms repackage it in some way to squeeze some extra cash out. The IPO of the private equity/hedge funds proved almost too timely.

Chris Dillow points to the launch of a new ag fund and wonders if it means food prices are peaking (one hopes)

And Paul Kedrosky, the other day, pointed to the IPO of an energy financial firm.

You might say: well if they're selling, why should you be buying. Though by using that logic, you'd never ever call a bet in poker unless you had the mortal nuts. Sometimes the sellers are bluffing... though I don't know where you really go with that analogy.