Analysts Anonymous - My Take on What's Happening

You can take the analyst out of the brokerage, but you can't take the brokerage out of the analyst. What's happening now, this Stalwart's take.

...Obama's economic plan could include a large dose of tax cuts, perhaps totalling $300bn, rather than simply pumping out purely government expenditures. Which is probably good thing and should make many republicans happy. 

Still, US steel companies see no reason to sit back and relax. Having seen the success of the automakers, US steelmakers are now clamoring for government support despite recent boom times. 

As an aftershock from the commodities boom, some shipper groups are clamoring for re-regulation of US railroads, complaining that recent price hikes were unfair. Rail is still probably a better deal than trucks, given customers are taking the price hikes, though lower oil could change this. US railroads were deregulated around 1980 after years of horrible performance. Now they finally have had the ability to modernize and create one of the most efficient rail shipping infrastructures in the world. Hopefully the twisted lesson learned from all this won't be to go back to the way it was.

In terms of economic indicators, the US manufacturing index fell to a 28 year low in December, and if the December rate were to persist for a full year, US GDP would drop 2.7%. Lets hope thats not quite the scenario which plays out. China isn't doing so well either, where manufacturing output fell (yes, economic indicators can actually go negative in high growth China) for the third straight month. 

US auto sales in 2008 fell nearly 20% vs. 2007. And thus oddly enough... Japan could be experiencing a sort of pyrrhic victory since just as autos become the country's #1 export, we hit one of the worst auto slumps in recent memory. Cars seem so 20th century these days.

In Semiconductors, semi sales fell 10% YoT in November with memory hit especially hard. Probably related, there are reports of a spreading consumer electronics inventory glut. Music sales fell in 2008 for the 7th time in 8 years. Perhaps the CD will be one of this recessions fatalities.

In the deal space. Pfizer's CEO has recently said that he is open to acquisitions. Let the speculation commence (continue?). Pharma is one place dealmaking isn't on life support, as buying companies these days is likely cheaper, and faster, than in-house R&D. Also, interesting article in regards to all the stakeholders DOW's CEO is struggling to appease. Rohm & Haas, to complete the deal, shareholders, banks who are iffy on DOW's financial post a potential ROH deal. The Kuwaitis, though they might now be out of the picture after canceling their JV.

Please bear with this recovering analyst.

(Vincent)

Comments

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Glaxo is just a marketing hand
so who sold that vacc to the whole world carrying seeds of the next pandemic?
What state, what monster?
When failed, getting away to try again?
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OH YEAH?
guess where all the internet monitoring flows to and you guessed where that vaccine maker sits
According to a list compiled by Dr. Patricia Doyle at rense.com, a host of strange ingredients are used to make up Hoffman-La Roche's anti-flu drug Tamiflu, which has recently been connected with bizarre behavior,
Patients using Tamiflu -- which many nations are stocking up on as a way to combat a possible pandemic of the deadly H5N1 bird flu -- reported delirium, hallucinations, delusions, convulsions, disturbed consciousness and abnormal behavior. The FDA reports that side effects reported with Tamiflu include nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, bronchitis, stomach pain, dizziness and headache.
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COMING SOON FROM THE SAME CREEPS: CARBON SIN RELIC INDULGENCES, PAYABLE TO GUESS WHOM.
Hint 1, it never was the Pope.
Hint 2, when exposed with biggest fake relics collection ever, the perpetrators protest laudest and become The Reformation Crowd.
Hint 3, See Barnum's Humbugs of all times 1860 book, chapter on Moon Hoax

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