An Experimental Post, US Refiners Still Price-in Industry Strength

I admit that this is a rather experimental post. I have done some work recently looking at valuations on US independent refiners and have reached some conclusions, one being that current share prices, despite their substantial declines in 2008, still price-in a historically strong industry environment going forward. Thus they are not priced for hard times as some might believe.  The four companies I look at, Valero (VLO), Tesoro (TSO), Frontier (FTO), and Holly (HOC), are actually still more expensive in terms of capacity valuation than they were at their own share price highs of 1998-2003, at least by my analysis.

I also believe that the strongest ideas are formed via sharing and confrontation. 

I have thus attached a rather detailed PDF to this post, which looks at calculated historical EV/Capacity valuatons for four US refiners. Perhaps something similar has already been said elsewhere, but I have a feeling that likely not using the same perspective, and thus I hope this piece adds some value. 

Rather than imply an outright Buy or Sell opinion, it rather aims to say merely "US refiners aren't priced for hard times, they still price-in a historically strong industry environment". It is just meant to add one piece to a large puzzle. Anyhow, here is the link for any interested.

Download Ind Refiners EV.Cap 

Let me caution that I in no way guarantee any of its contents, and this is purely a personal opinion being presented which could change at any time. Everyone should do their own due diligence. Some estimates are used, such as adding near term future capacity additions to last reported capacity. Also, while I currently don't have any personal exposure to these shares, I could have exposure to them at any time without notice. 

Other than that, well hopefully enjoy!

(Vincent)

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