After a day of doing absolutely zilch, I spent some time clicking around tech blogs, and was amused to find a post from Robert Scoble artfully titled We’re in a death spiral, referring to the crumbling economy. (If you don't already know who Scoble is, then lucky you). Anyway, this was the part that caught my eye:
Where do you see the market hitting bottom? I think we’ll test 8,000 by end of the year (some people say probably by the end of the week if it keeps going down line this).
Nope, I don't care that some yacker on the internet is predicting Dow 8,000. But what strikes me is the use of the word "test". That's pure CNBC-speak and in this case it's just meaningless gibberish. Unless you're actually referring to a meaningful technical level or a period (example: testing the 2003 lows), it's a ridiculous word to use.
Now I'm not making a semantic argument, but a larger observation: It's said that in a bull market, everyone fashions themselves a market expert. I think we're seeing the same in this scary dive.
Like excuses, opinions are like assholes: everyone has one and most of them stink. I certainly don't exempt myself from that generalization.
Then you've got pundits like Ben Stein whose veneer of respectability belies the fact that he's just as clueless as the rest of us.
Posted by: Lee D | October 07, 2008 at 05:12 PM
Agreed. Anyone listening to a guy with a photo like that gets what he deserves.
Posted by: BobsyerUncle | October 08, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Godel proved these guys don't know anything so listening to them is sure to be a waste of time.
Volatility is natural and one needs to manage it as appropriate. It's not hard to do once you stop trying to think you know what's going to happen.
Posted by: Kris | October 10, 2008 at 10:47 AM
My favorite bit of market analysis speak will always be LuRu - Louis Rukeyser. During a bad period circa 1994 he said, "...and traders spent the rest of the week in that most sexist of pursuits: feeling for a bottom."
Posted by: Frymaster | October 10, 2008 at 11:32 AM
Funny, the "experts" on CNBC were saying all week long that the market is going up "tomorrow."
Instead the market "tested" 8,000 today. Hey, I should have said that 8,000 would happen this week, then I could have really been accurate.
But, you are correct. No one really knows what's going to happen tomorrow. Neither the experts, nor me, nor you. Have a fun weekend!
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