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Barry Ritholtz

We don't really disagree all that much.

Many people put far too much faith in these markets, and that is what I am pushing back against.

As tot he long shot paying off -- that's why weatherman and (smart) forecasters always couch their terms in statistical probabilities. Its not they were wrong, mind you, the long shot paid off.

A serious question: How can we verify how statistically accurate these markets are? Or is every "wrong" selection merely the long shot paying off?

Were these really longshots?
• Iowa Primary 2004 (Howard Dean)
• 2006 GOP Senate Retention
• New Hampshire Primary 2008
• Michael Jackson Trial
• Morgan Stanley CEO Purcell resignation

I think the long shot explanation is too glib. Instead, look to see where there is

1) An insufficient amount of incentives;
2) A lack of diversity of ideas;

I have little doubt that it was the latter in the case of the GOP VP

Will Slade

The best thing about prediction markets is that they put a number on uncertainty. It's not an exact number, but if it's a big sample, it's probably robust.

That means that sometimes, everybody is wrong. And that's just life.

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amazing post, I like this part But if Intrade was so "wrong" and so consistently wrong, then why isn't Barry Ritholtz an avid participant in these markets. Seriously, he should be making a downright killing, cleaning up on these know-nothing traders.

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