Sometimes you have to admit that you're dumb and you don't understand something. This is one of those situations. Ok, a Citi analyst thinks that Liberty Media might buy the AOL access business from Time Warner. Eric Savitz summarizes his reasoning:
Citigroup’s Jason Bazinet this morning asserts that there is a 40% chance that Liberty Capital (LCAPA), the Malone holding company for a host of media and telecom assets, could swap its current stake in Time Warner plus some cash for the AOL access business. Bazinet says a deal could “bring a cash generative business to Liberty Capital,” which it could use the cash AOL throws off to buy back shares at a discount to net asset value. (Bazinet thinks Liberty shares are trading at about a 25% discount to their underlying asset value.)
This is all about taxes, right? This is about finding a taxman-unfriendly way of generating cash and buying back shares... otherwise it's all hocus pocus, cause theoretically Liberty could just start selling its TWX holdings and use that cash to buy back shares, without going through the trouble of this big swap. On the other hand, how big of a tax bill could Mr. Malone face from selling TWX? The stock trades pretty close to multi-year lows.
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