The American On Oil

Interesting article in one of my favorite publications The American on the direction of oil prices. This has become an enormous obsession, in party because, well, as is at $130/barrel, which is awkward, to say the least. From the piece:

In their state of forgetfulness, many pension funds and insurance companies have built up very large open positions in the oil futures market. These positions are now estimated to total over $200 billion, roughly the equivalent of a full year of Chinese oil demand. They have contributed to the recent spectacular run-up in oil prices.

And:

Past experience suggests that if the recent run-up in oil prices is sustained, it alone will subtract more than a full percentage point from U.S. GDP growth in 2008. That experience also suggests that, over the longer haul, the recent doubling in oil prices will subtract another full percentage point from U.S. GDP growth beyond 2008. Since these oil price increases have occurred in the context of a housing bust and a credit crunch, one must assume that the U.S. economy is facing the real risk of a recession that is both deeper and more protracted than the postwar average. And if the recent spike in oil prices threatens to tip the U.S. economy into recession, just imagine what a further run-up in prices—say, to the $150 to $200 a barrel range—would do.

Comments

[Alzheimer's care]

Great insights!

[original jordan shoes]

I found so many interesting stuff in your blog especially its discussion. From the tons of comments on your articles, I guess I am not the only one having all the enjoyment here!

[dr dre studio black]

I guess I am not the only one having all the enjoyment here!

[ティンバーランド]

東日本大震災の被災地で山積みのがれきは、復興の妨げとなっている。大津波に襲われた岩手、宮城、福島３県の沿岸部は平坦（へいたん）な土地が少なく、港周辺の仮置き場のがれき処理が進まなければ、港や防潮堤の整備も始められない状態だ。

　ティンバーランド環境省によると、３県のがれきの推計量は６日現在で２２６５万トン。うち１５０９万トンが仮置き場に置かれたままだ。３県が県内の施設で処理する分を除く他府県への受け入れ要請量は計３９５万トンに上る。