So, Do You Bet Against The Farmers?

Reports of farmers trading in their cheap cattle for valuable corn raises the obvious question: is it time to buy cattle and give up on corn? Well for one thing, it's always dicey to bet against insiders, especially when the source of your info is CBC.ca, and the insiders are, well, the actual farmers.

But it is true that farmers, by doing this, will create a greater supply of grain and a lower supply of value-added cattle. That has to show up in prices, especially since cattle are such a big consumer of grain.

Another thing to consider -- and I almost hate to say it, but I will -- is that farmers, in the end, always get the short end of the stick. It seems to be a metaphysical constant, that in the long run, the poor farmer gets, for lack of a better word, screwed. So when you see this farmers trading in their heads of cattle for plowshares, in a rush to go for the fast cash, you can almost see how it all plays out in the end. They make their investment and the price of corn crashes to the earth. They have to sell the farm, either to a big agribusiness, or to land developers that turn the land into condos for Prius-driving yuppies. That's just how it goes.

Comments

[Gregg]

Yes, yes they do. My father and brother farm corn, cotton and soybeans (they are a "corporate farm" by many definitision though...not necessarily a family farm anymore).

Funny. I had this conversation with a gentleman farmer-friend who has 300 or so head of beef cattle in East Tennessee (he runs a biotech company on the side). Beef prices are have fallen due to the corn prices (i don't understand the logic, but ok). He won't sell the cows for corn, but I bet many do. Buy Beef. On the flip side, the rains in the midwestern and southern US have delayed corn planting a little. If they continue, it could have a market impact.

[maggie]

you are right!farmers, in the end, always get the short end of the stick.
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