Again via Barry, apparently some longtime gold bull (gold bug) is willing to bet anyone $1 million that the price of gold will hit $1,650 by 2011 and he says that if you're not willing to bet him on this point, then you should just shut the hell up about calling a market top:
Please communicate to ANY vocal bearish so-called gold expert that I challenge them to put their money on their views.
Any commentator unable to financially meet this challenge should not be opining. If they really knew the gold and currency market they could easily meet the challenge.
Ok, Mr. Jim Sinclar, I have a serious counteroffer. I will put up $5,000 that gold will not hit $1650 by 2011, if you put up $200,000 that it will. If you're so sure that it will, then the long odds shouldn't be of much of a concern. I'm basically offering you free money. Heck, I might even be persuaded by a $50,000 payoff, but we'd have to negotiate.
If you're not willing to take this offer, then I can't help but wonder how confident you are in your prediction. I'm asking you to lay me some odds because I feel that you, as a gold industry expert, must have more knowledge than me, and I need some compensation for that information asymmetry. Only fair, no?
Really, I can't help but wonder why your initial offer to the punditocracy was just a 1-to-1 bet. That doesn't signal much confidence at all. If that were a fair bet, then the odds of gold hitting $1650 would just be 50 percent. Not all that exciting. So, sir, my email address is jnathan -at- gmail -dot- com. Email me, and I'll negotiate with you something in good faith. It'll be fun and I'm sure the bet will get on CNBC. Especially if nobody takes up your offer, then this might be your best opportunity.
*Just note, this idea was partly inspired by Bryan Caplan, who made a similar proposition to someone at a party who claimed 100 percent certainty that Hillary would be the next President, but wouldn't offer generous odds on a bet.