I think I have a fairly good track record of calling political trades on Intrade, although I haven't traded directly in a while (due to restrictions on moving money and my laziness). But I see that John McCain is $.34 on the dollar to win the Presidency and Barack Obama is now up to $.43 for same. How is that not ridiculous? McCain has the Republican nomination basically sewn up, whereas Obama has a long, long slog ahead, just to get to the general. Even if you assume that Obama is going to win the nomination, seeing as it's only February, the two should be more like 50-50, or 55-45, once they get to a head to head. So why not go long McCain and short Obama from here?
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The Stalwart is a blog written by Joseph Weisenthal, covering such topics as stocks, business, economics, politics, technology, gambling, chess, poker, economics, current events, music, math, Chinese food, science, randomness, kurtosis, sports, evolutionary fitness, and anything else of the author's choosing. The words contained herein are the author's own, not affiliated with any other firm or employer.
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Definitely do not short obama! On most other markets he's .66 vs clinton .33 for the dem nom. mcain on the other hand is .99 for the rep nom so that is a sure thing to buy at .34 with a target of at least .44 or so.
Posted by: dug | February 10, 2008 at 05:51 PM