Predictions 2008

Every predictions post I read on other blogs starts with the same preface: predictions posts are lame, blah blah blah blah. Well forget that. Predictions posts are fun and cool and they're a good mental exercise. And I stand solidly behind all of the predictions I make, though I take no responsibility if you act on them and things don't turn out right. A year from today, I'll do a tally of how I did, though I may revisit some of these predictions during the year, as they're either proved or disproved.

Markets/Economy:

• DJIA: +2% S&P 500: 2.5% NASDAQ: 5%
• Oil at $75/barrel
• 1 EUR = $1.35
• Record highs made (briefly) in the elderberry market.
• At least two quarters of sub-1% growth.
• Las Vegas-based casinos have a bad year.
• The monthly trade gap ends the year narrower than it currently is.
• Starbucks has a good year on strong growth in China
• At least two major financial firms will declare bankruptcy. Candidates include MBIA, Sallie Mae, Countrywide, inter alia.

Technology:

• All of the major second tier search engines/portals (MSN, Yahoo, AOL, Ask) will exist in the same state they do now, i.e., no major mergers or spinoffs.
• Wikia Search will be a flop, though via the magic of SEO it will show strong traffic gains.
• Despite economic woes, there won't be a big slowdown in the VC/startup world.
• Semantic web technology will continue to be a non starter, regardless of how many PhDs helped develop your algorithm.
• MySpace will remain bigger than Facebook at the end of the year, and it will have a more developed/mature advertising strategy.
• Several pundits will declare Moore's Law dead.
• Amazon MP3 store gains significant traction by end of year (+8%). All major labels will sell DRM-free tracks on it.
• DVD continues to reign supreme as platform of choice for long-form home video.
• Google doesn't end up with any wireless spectrum, and Android proves unworthy of the hype. Maybe in 2009.
• Strong market share gains for Lenovo in the laptop space
• No significant competitor to the iPod will emerge. Non-iPods fight in frustration for the non-iPod scraps.
• Big non-Microsoft software companies will be beset by product delays and buggy releases.
• Google will move further into the enterprise with its own lightweight CRM/ERP software (caveat: it may do this in partnership with some existing vendor, though that vendor won't be Salesforce.com)
• Once again, Europe will fail to establish a global 'net brand, a la Google or Yahoo.
• Purely ad-based business models on the web recede big time. That's not to say free services will go away, but the $/CPM question will not hold as much force.

Politics:

• Democratic nominee: HRC.
• Republican nominee: Mitt Romney
• Major third party entrant: yes
• Winner: HRC
• George Bush will say something cringe-inducing during the Beijing Olympics
• No air strikes on Iran; No fundamental change in the mideast.

Sports:

• The Patriots won't win the Super Bowl.
• China will come within 10 medals of first place in the medal count, but the US will hold on.
• The UK fails to crack 20
• US wins gold in basketball.
• No Triple Crown in horse racing, once again.
• The winner of the WSOP will not be an American
• Sunglasses wearers at the World Series of Poker will look a little less jack-assey when a player tops them by putting on a gasmask during big hands, ensuring themselves several moments on ESPN.
• Journalists begin to poke deeper into the use of steroids in football.

Entertainment:

• Sales of physical records -15%
• Box office receipts -5% in 2008
• Britney Spears regains custody of her kids
• Box office receipts will decline by 4% in 2008, ex the effect of inflation.

World events:

• No airstrikes in Iran
• No fundamental change in Mideast politics
• Castro dies
• Chavez successfully implements constitutional changes that solidify his power
• A major Russian political figure gets assassinated

Science:

• String theory stages a minor recovery in the popular consciousness.

Comments

[Kevin]

I agree with most of them, but have to differ on the Las Vegas casinos. I was just reading where growth is expoding, with the best 3 months ever. Much of it is from new rich Chinese, with Vegas being the closest world class casino area (Macao...?).

[Lee D]

Elderberries?

[Dan]

These are better than the I-phone being a bust prediction from June at least...

[Joe]

Re: iPhone
Yeah, that didn't turn out too well, did it?

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[karen]

Oil traded today (January 3, 2008 biz.yahoo.com/ap/080102/oil_prices.html) at $100 a barrel and some North American economists are predicting $145 a barrel during 2008. Kinda blows out the $75 a barrel prediction already.

[karen]

Oil traded today (January 3, 2008 biz.yahoo.com/ap/080102/oil_prices.html) at $100 a barrel and some North American economists are predicting $145 a barrel during 2008. Kinda blows out the $75 a barrel prediction already.

[Joe]

I'm not sure how $100 oil today blows my prediction at all. On the other hand, I think my prediction for Romney to win is now DOA, which is fine with me.

[Amy]

I'm with Lee... elderberries? Do tell!