When prediction markets first started getting media attention, it made sense for there to be a lot of discussion about their theoretical implications. In the 2004 and 2006 elections, it was interesting to see how Tradesports et. al. did in predicting the winners (my impression is that they did okay). But the theoretical and even journalistic angles became tired some time ago. What I'm interested in, as I've mentioned before, are people who actually bet and win on these sites, and how they do it. I want to read people discussing strategies for profiting. My hunch would be that these fairly new, illiquid markets should be killable. In other words, I doubt that they're that efficient yet, even with all of the attention they've received. Heck, even in highly-liquid markets, some traders can still make money.
So far, I haven't seen much, though I did come across The Tradesports Political Maven (via Midas Oracle), which is right along the lines of what I'm looking for.
Anyone know of anything else?
On Intrade.com you can take a position (100 futures contracts) for roughly $89 that will pay a gross $11. The risk is minimal (It's a bet that either Clinton, Obama, Gore or Edwards will win the Democratic presidential nominee.) After commissions you're looking at $6 profit. Not exactly worth your time. The largest position you can take is around 500 contracts, but the total cost is closer to $95. Percentage wise you can make a killing, too bad you can't even buy a cigar with your winnings.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 27, 2007 at 09:39 AM
What are you talking about?
Intrade's liquidity was crippled because of the Jon Kyl-sponsored NETeller inquisition. But you can still accumulate thousands of contracts over a relatively short period of time, without much in the way of impact costs.
Posted by: Alex Forshaw | April 27, 2007 at 01:18 PM
This book claim to give you what you are looking for (no idea of its quality): "How to Milk the Tradesports Cash Cow":
http://www.winontradesports.com/
Posted by: David Pennock | April 29, 2007 at 02:59 PM
this is so crazy that you can bet on this. I will bet on the next election.
forex trading forum
Posted by: forex forum | March 17, 2009 at 12:24 AM