Coup? What Coup? Got My Starbucks

Battlefield Bangkok. Yes, we stepped out onto the battlefield this morning here in Bangkok, and braved the streets in order excercise our most important freedom- the right to free business exchange. Coup or no coup we needed a coffee. Once outside we quickly realized that you know what? So far... liberty still stands firm in Thailand, and business is pretty much as usual.

We think that mainsteam media has this coup OVERHYPED.

Coffee still for sale. After visiting the local Starbucks (we have 3 to choose from actually within 5 minutes, and all  of which were open) we walked by and noticed that McDonalds was already back and working to serve its next billionth customer. The skytrain was running, and... as we learned at 7am this morning... the construction next door to our apartment window hasn't slowed a bit. Its still going at full speed and workers are jackhammering away as if nothing has happened.

We got our soap operas back. The military came on television this morning and made a new announcement. They have returned Thai television to normal, so we get out soap operas back, but international news channels are still cut. The funny thing is that most people here have no issue with TV channels being cut. They don't quite see any affront to their liberties. I guess television censorship is small infringement issue compared to this full blown coup. But also,  from the Thais I've spoken to, few to none are angered by the coup. Nevertheless we must not that our sample set is from a relatively wealthy minority of Thailand, who have been generally against Thaksin in this saga.

Guys with guns choose the leader. In this morning's announcement, the military declared that they have no intention to run the country, but are just taking control temporarily since the country is in crisis and they want to maintain unity.  (Unity of all the people with guns) Thus far the story is that a civilian government will be appointed within 2 weeks,  and then a general election will be carried out by October 2007 once "proper" amendments to the constitution have been carried out.

We're sticking with our next leader call. In a previous post you'll see that our key sources currently say this person will be Dr. Sumeth Tantivechakul, a previous secretary general for NESDB (National Economic & Social Development Board) and also someone who has worked on many royal projects. Sounds like a  pragmatic choice if indeed he is selected. He would satisfy the business community and foreign investors with his economic bent plus is perceived as a servant of the royal family. Hard to argue against servants of the royal family here.

But the empire has yet to strike back. Still, we note that so far pro-Thaksin forces (part of the military and we feel most of the police) have been mum in Thailand. So the situation isn't over. We've only seen the first move; the initiation of the coup. Thaksin has rejected it from New York, and its still to be seen how he reacts going forward.

If Thaksin capitulates and perhaps brokers some sort of truce (though he would have to relinquish power) then the situation could be back to normal. But, were he to stand defiant, then it could get ugly. Still something tells us that military isn't about to confront military. Thailand is a country of compromise, plus a lot of business profits would be at stake if this situation became violent. And in the end its all just about profits here. Both sides want to make their money. There is no social revolution against Thaksin, its just the old-money disgruntled business elite who wan their proper cut of the government spoils.

But hey, coup days are holidays. Nevertheless, once again I'll say that business is going on as usual. If I hadn't seen or heard the news, I wouldn't know a coup had happened last night. The military declared today as a holiday, thus this coups isn't all that bad. You get a day off and everything is just business as usual. Coup days are more relaxing to normal days from the perspective on the street. Traffic is low as well, though people are still out and about.

Malls are full of people laughing, shopping, looking good. We strolled through one of the top high end shopping malls here, and lo and behold people were out shopping. The mall was reasonably full of people for a Wednesday morning. Pictures are included below.  We also contrast these with pictures shown by CNN and the BBC. It really isn't so bad here.  At least so far.

I would say the core strategy behind this coup is keep everyone calm and contented, then the population will just let it pass, Thaksin will be gone, then it will be life as usual. None of the business interests want conflict, its bad for sales.

Pictures below: The first three are from major news organizations, and the rest we took today during our stroll through some of the shopping megaplexes here. Note the contrast between tanks, prayers, and guns vs. people out shopping, eating, buying organic fruits, etc. In the center of Bangkok, except for a few soldiers hanging around on some major street corners, life goes on as if nothing much happened. We did note that some shops had closed for the day, but overall traffic was pretty good in the city's main shopping district. This author got a haircut, some lunch, and did a bit of window shopping. People are at ease.