S&P500 Up More than Commodities Over 3 Years

Michael Santoli takes the reigns this week for the Up and Down Wall Street Column at Barron's. He refers to technical analyst John Roque who when confronted by talk of a commodity bubble, smartly points out:

Since Oct. 10, 2002, the bear-market low in stocks, the S&P 500 was up 58% through Wednesday after an 18-month bear market, and the CRB [Reuters/Jeffries CRB Commodities Index] was up 53%, after a 20-year bear market. (This return differential comes even after the keepers of the CRB last year reweighted the index in a way that has helped its performance.)

Can this be a commodity bubble if commodities as a class have trailed an unexceptional stock market for 3½ years?

So is the S&P 500 run a bubble as well, and more so even? Another good simple point, not to end the debate, put sure to open our minds a bit.

Comments

[Bary G]

That kind of thinking is supposed to make us think of reversion to the mean, but the reality is that over the long run stocks return 10% a yr and commodities return -3% a yr.

[ティンバーランド]

京都府の担当者も「処理の実働部隊となる市町村に受け入れを要請する際の国の基準が不明確で、検討する予定はない」としており、まずは国基準をさらに明確化する必要があると主張。滋賀県も、県内の全１９市町が「受け入れ困難」としているため、県としても検討していないという。

　ティンバーランドまた、近畿で唯一、広域連合に加盟していない奈良県の担当者も「県民の理解や感情論を考えると現状では難しい」と話している。