Media 2.0 Better Be Less Profitable Than Media 1.0

Trawling through Memeorandum on a cloudy April day, just came across the following from a discussion surrounding the question "What If Media 2.0 Is Less Profitable Than Media 1.0?".  Now, I can't claim to know, with certainty what Media 2.0 or even Media 1.0 is.  It's best to leave leave that to the experts.  What I can say is that, anything 2.0 should be less profitable than the 1.0 version.  And if there's ever a third iteration, that better be even less profitable.

Most of human and technological progress can be described in terms of lost profits.  If Google is to be the next Microsoft, it will do so my making less money.  If they ever become bigger than Microsoft was in its heyday, then something's gone wrong.  That means humans will spending more money on internet/computer stuff than they were before, which doesn't make sense.  If somehow the world of blogs and new media makes more money than newspapers did, that means we're spending (or advertisers are) more on media.  Why would we want to do that? 

The media often gets this exactly backwards, trumpeting the creation of new jobs, while decrying the lost ones.  Of course, lost jobs are a true measure of economic progress.  Lost jobs represent all of the things we don't need to do anymore, or need fewer people to do -- like toil in fields or handle stock trades. 

The obvious message, is that anyone in a new industry, needs to look at the industry it's replacing and then reduce the numbers (both jobs and profits) by a lot to get a feel for its size.  The good news is that there are a lot more jobs and industries then there used to be.

Comments

[Patrick]

Surely you mean there should be lower profit MARGINS.

A more efficient, lower cost system may end up larger overall, just because so many more customers can afford to use it.

For example, the recorded and broadcast music business of the 20th century was much larger than the live music business of the 19th century, because the much lower unit cost meant that the majority of the population could afford to listen to music every day, something that could never happen with live performances.

[Mr Juggles]

Patrick makes a good point.

A company can be bigger than it's 1.0 iteration by lowering the cost to consume and thus expanding the market. It can also become bigger than any single 1.0 company by dominating a market previously served by many different companies (due to wider reach, more efficient operations, etc.). For instance, in the case of Monster.com, if it were to somehow succeed in becoming the de facto source of job listings (and I doubt they will), they would have a larger revenue base than any single newspaper company ever had in classified job postings and yet the overall job classified market would have shrunk in dollar terms because Monster charges much less than the NYTimes does.

[Freddie]

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