Great news. Stalwart favorite thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb now has a 35-page preview of his upcoming book available for download (.pdf) on his website. Just came across and haven't had the time to dig into it, but it's titled The Scandal of Prediction, which is itself awesome.
I'm particularly excited about the book. I recently had a brief email exchange with Taleb, in which he promised he would address the idea of the placebo effect in in his upcoming book (Ed. Note: Call me a crank, but I've long suspected {and research is starting to show} that the placebo effect is an illusion)
Fyi, link to the book preview has a spelling error.
Posted by: rajesh | January 24, 2006 at 11:43 AM
I love this blog and agree with most posts, but the comment on the placebo effect is way off.
There is overwhelming evidence of the widespread impact of placebo effects on all sorts of mental and physical conditions.
A great treatment of the subject is Meaning, Medicine and the 'Placebo Effect,' by Moerman. Read it and you will have no choice but to acknowledge the placebo effect is real and powerful.
As for why it doesn't get the attention it deserves, it's not hard to figure out why. Every good or service on the planet that claims a positive physical or mental benefit stands to lose crediblity as the placebo effect gains public recognition. That's a pretty strong economic force to compete against.
Posted by: Sandy Kory | January 25, 2006 at 01:54 AM
I don't have any respect whatsoever for mr Taleb. Read his books and gasp at the fundamental errors he makes all too often.
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