Ritholtz on Meaningless Patterns

I've been meaning to link to this Barry Ritholtz post on why it's meaningless to say something like "The fourth year of abull market usually does ___".  It touches on all the the themes we like, like false patterns, and the problems with prognostication.  It also makes an important point, in that it acknowledges that perhaps multiple variable analysis may be useful.  So if you know, for example that the it's been a long bull market, the yield curve is inverted, the fed is nearing the end of rate increases, and corporate profits are slowing, then it's more reasonable to make a guess.  Worth a read.