An Analyst's Coverage of Fedex

Tickersense, a blog from Birinyi Associates, takes a look at one analyst's overage of Federal Express (NYSE:FDX) over the past two years.  The analyst, from Legg Mason, recently reduced his rating from a BUY to a HOLD, and what makes this interesting is that this analyst has the best track record of anyone who covers Federal Express.  Now, I don't know what a HOLD really means at Legg Mason, though it's certainly a somewhat negative call, and I presume it generates some selling volume.  So as you can see, throughout the second half of '04, this analyst made HOLD calls all the way up and then another one right at the peak.  All those earlier HOLD calls probably should have been BUYS, and the one at the peak, a SELL, but again, I don't know Legg's protocol, and what these calls mean.  Only recently, did he start making BUY calls.  The first one, back in June wasn't particularly well timed, though two more recent ones were.  In short, it's hard to see how the very best FDX analyst has really helped anyone.

To be fair, I think the problem lies more to do with the screwy BUY/HOLD/SELL-call system, which for some reason is still favored on Wall St.

I'm also excited that Birinyi Associates is now blogging.  Check out their company description:

Birinyi Associates is a stock market research firm that is unique because it does not analyze the economy, has little interest in corporate developments and fundamentals and has little use for traditional, technical, quantitative or other market indicators.

Our approach is to understand the psychology and history of the market, and most importantly the actions of investors. Much of our effort involves money flows, or what has traditionally been called ticker tape analysis.

Not exactly my cup 'o tea, but it sounds interesting nonetheless.

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